Baccarat Odds Calculator

Baccarat is the game of choice for casino whales and high rollers worldwide—and there's good mathematical reason why. This calculator reveals the true probabilities, house edge, and expected value for every baccarat bet, from the main wagers to exotic side bets.

Main Bet Calculator

Select a bet type to see detailed odds and calculate expected value

BANKER
45.86%
House Edge: 1.06%
Pays 0.95:1 (5% commission)
PLAYER
44.62%
House Edge: 1.24%
Pays 1:1 (even money)
TIE
9.52%
House Edge: 14.36%
Pays 8:1
Some casinos offer "no commission" baccarat where Banker pays even money, but Banker wins on 6 pay only 50%.

Expected Outcomes

Did You Know? The Banker bet has the lowest house edge of any casino table game bet (excluding certain craps odds bets). At 1.06%, it's even lower than basic strategy blackjack in many casinos. This is why high rollers like Kerry Packer preferred baccarat—the mathematics favor the player more than almost any other game.

Pattern Tracker Demo

Many baccarat players religiously track results on scorecards, looking for "hot" streaks or patterns. Casinos happily provide these cards because they know the truth: each hand is statistically independent. Past results don't influence future outcomes.

Baccarat Results Board

0
Banker Wins
0
Player Wins
0
Ties
The Mathematical Truth: No matter what pattern you see, the next hand has the exact same probabilities: Banker 45.86%, Player 44.62%, Tie 9.52%. The cards have no memory. Learn more about this cognitive trap in our article on gambling superstitions and rituals.

Baccarat Side Bets Analysis

Side bets are where casinos really make their money on baccarat. While the main bets have edges of 1-14%, side bets typically have house edges of 5-25% or more. Here's why professional gamblers avoid them:

Player Pair
Pays 11:1
House Edge: 11.25%
First two Player cards are a pair
Banker Pair
Pays 11:1
House Edge: 11.25%
First two Banker cards are a pair
Either Pair
Pays 5:1
House Edge: 14.54%
Either hand starts with a pair
Perfect Pair
Pays 25:1
House Edge: 13.03%
Same rank and suit pair
Big
Pays 0.54:1
House Edge: 4.35%
Total of 5 or 6 cards dealt
Small
Pays 1.5:1
House Edge: 5.27%
Total of 4 cards dealt
Dragon Bonus (Player)
Pays up to 30:1
House Edge: 2.65%
Player wins by natural or 4+ points
Super 6
Pays 12:1
House Edge: 29.98%
Banker wins with 6

Baccarat Bet Comparison

Bet Type Win Probability House Edge Rating
Banker (with 5% commission) 45.86% 1.06% Best Bet
Player 44.62% 1.24% Very Good
Banker (Commission-Free on 6) 45.86% 1.46% Good
Dragon Bonus Varies 2.65% Moderate
Big/Small Varies 4-5% Poor
Pair Bets ~7.5% 11.25% Avoid
Tie 9.52% 14.36% Avoid
Super 6 ~5.4% 29.98% Never

Understanding the Mathematics

Baccarat is played with 8 decks of cards, and the probabilities come from analyzing all possible card combinations. Here's why the numbers work out the way they do:

Why Does Banker Win More Often?

The Banker hand acts second and follows complex drawing rules that give it a slight statistical advantage. According to UNLV's Center for Gaming Research, in an 8-deck shoe:

  • Banker wins: 45.86% of hands
  • Player wins: 44.62% of hands
  • Tie: 9.52% of hands

The 5% commission on Banker wins compensates for this natural advantage. Without it, the Banker bet would have a player edge of about 1.3%—and casinos would never offer the game.

The Tie Bet Trap

The Tie bet pays 8:1, which sounds attractive until you do the math. With a 9.52% probability of occurring, the fair payout would be about 9.5:1. The 8:1 payout creates a massive 14.36% house edge—making it one of the worst bets in the casino. As the American Gaming Association's research notes, educated players consistently avoid high-edge proposition bets.

The Bottom Line: If you must play baccarat, bet on Banker. Over 1,000 hands of $100 bets, you'll lose an expected $1,060 on Banker versus $1,240 on Player versus $14,360 on Tie. That's a difference of $13,300 just from bet selection.

Commission-Free Baccarat: Is It Better?

Many casinos now offer "No Commission" or "EZ Baccarat" where Banker bets pay even money—but with a catch. When Banker wins with a total of 6, either the bet pushes or pays only 50%. This changes the math significantly:

  • Standard Baccarat Banker: 1.06% house edge
  • Commission-Free (push on 6): 1.46% house edge
  • Commission-Free (half pay on 6): 1.46% house edge

Commission-free baccarat is mathematically worse for players, but it speeds up the game (no commission tracking) and feels simpler. Casinos benefit from faster play and more hands per hour.

Why High Rollers Love Baccarat

In Macau, baccarat accounts for over 80% of casino revenue. High rollers like Kerry Packer and Akio Kashiwagi wagered millions per hand. The reasons are mathematical:

  1. Low House Edge: At 1.06%, whales lose less per dollar wagered than almost any other game
  2. High Betting Limits: Casinos accommodate much larger bets on baccarat than other games
  3. No Skill Required: Unlike poker or blackjack, there are no decisions to make—just bet and watch
  4. Social Atmosphere: The VIP baccarat experience includes private rooms and luxury treatment

Learn more about the legendary baccarat sessions in our story on casino whales and high rollers.

Related Stories

More Casino Tools

Educational Purpose: This calculator is for understanding baccarat mathematics only. The house always has an edge, and long-term gambling results in losses. If you're concerned about gambling behavior, contact the National Council on Problem Gambling helpline at 1-800-522-4700.