Blackjack Hand Simulator

Ever wondered why basic strategy says to hit 16 against a dealer's 10? This simulator runs thousands of hands to show you the expected outcomes of every decision. See the mathematics in action and understand why the basic strategy chart gives the recommendations it does.

Simulate Blackjack Hands

Select your hand and the dealer's upcard, then simulate to see outcomes

Simulation Rules

6-deck shoe Dealer stands on soft 17 Blackjack pays 3:2 Double on any two cards Split pairs allowed No surrender

Your First Card

Your Second Card

Dealer's Upcard

Your Hand
♠ 9 ♠
♥ 7 ♥
16
Dealer Shows
♣ 6 ♣
?
6

Try These Interesting Scenarios

Click any scenario to load it into the simulator:

The Classic Dilemma: 16 vs 10

The worst hand in blackjack. See why hitting is still better.

🂪 🂦 vs 🂺

Split 8s vs 10?

Basic strategy says split, but why break up 16?

🂨 🂸 vs 🂺

12 vs Dealer 4

Should you hit or stand on this marginal hand?

🂪 🂢 vs 🂤

Soft 18 vs 9

Most players stand, but is that correct?

🂡 🂧 vs 🂩

11 vs 5 (Double Down)

See why doubling is so powerful here.

🂥 🂶 vs 🂵

13 vs 2

Hit or stand against the weakest upcard?

🂪 🂳 vs 🂢

Understanding the Mathematics

This simulator uses Monte Carlo simulation, the same technique used by mathematicians and statisticians to analyze complex probability problems. According to Britannica, Monte Carlo methods simulate random sampling to obtain numerical results for problems that might be deterministic in principle but are difficult to solve analytically.

For each decision (hit, stand, double, split), the simulator:

  1. Creates a virtual 6-deck shoe with the selected cards removed
  2. Plays out the hand according to the chosen strategy
  3. Records the outcome (win, push, lose) and net result
  4. Repeats thousands of times to calculate expected value

The expected value (EV) represents the average outcome per unit bet. An EV of -0.15 means you'll lose an average of $0.15 for every $1 wagered. By comparing EV across decisions, you can see which choice minimizes your expected losses (or maximizes your expected gains).

Did You Know? The first complete basic strategy was calculated by Roger Baldwin, Wilbert Cantey, Herbert Maisel, and James McDermott using desk calculators in 1956. Their paper "The Optimum Strategy in Blackjack" was later refined by Edward Thorp, who went on to develop card counting. See our story on the Blackjack Hall of Fame to learn more about these pioneers.

Why Basic Strategy Works

Basic strategy isn't about winning every hand—it's about making the mathematically optimal decision that minimizes your expected losses over time. As the American Gaming Association notes, blackjack with perfect basic strategy has one of the lowest house edges of any casino game, typically around 0.5%.

The strategy accounts for:

  • Your hand total: Hard vs. soft hands, pairs vs. non-pairs
  • Dealer's upcard: Probability of dealer busting varies from 17% (Ace showing) to 42% (6 showing)
  • Remaining deck composition: The mathematical probabilities of what cards might come next

When you run this simulator, you're essentially replicating the calculations that MIT Blackjack Team members mastered. The difference is they added card counting on top of basic strategy to gain a positive edge.

The Dealer Bust Probability

One key insight from simulation is understanding dealer bust rates. Research from the UNLV Center for Gaming Research confirms these dealer bust probabilities based on upcard:

Dealer Upcard Bust Probability Player Strategy
2 35.3% Be cautious, dealer may survive
3 37.6% Slightly more aggressive
4 40.3% Dealer is weak
5 42.9% Dealer is very weak
6 42.1% Dealer is very weak
7 26.2% Dealer likely makes 17
8 23.9% Dealer is strong
9 23.3% Dealer is strong
10 21.4% Dealer is very strong
Ace 17.0% Dealer is strongest

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Remember: This simulator is for educational purposes only. It demonstrates the mathematics behind blackjack decisions but doesn't change the fundamental reality that casinos have a mathematical edge. Basic strategy minimizes—but doesn't eliminate—the house advantage. If you or someone you know is struggling with gambling, the National Problem Gambling Helpline is available 24/7 at 1-800-522-4700.