Keno Odds Calculator

Keno is one of the most popular casino games—and one of the worst bets you can make. With house edges ranging from 25% to 40%, keno makes slot machines look generous. This educational calculator shows you the exact probabilities of matching numbers and helps you understand why casinos love this game so much.

Keno Probability Calculator

Select how many numbers you want to pick, then see the exact odds of matching each possible outcome.

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Casino Draw (20 numbers)

Matches

Probability Analysis: 10-Spot Keno

Typical House Edge

25-30%

Expected Return

70-75¢ per $1

Chance of Any Win

Match Probabilities

In keno, the casino draws 20 numbers from 80. Here are your exact odds of matching each outcome:

Matches	Probability	Odds (1 in X)	Visual	Typical Payout

How These Odds Are Calculated:

Keno probabilities use hypergeometric distribution, a fundamental concept in probability theory. The formula calculates the exact chance of getting a specific number of matches when sampling without replacement from a finite population.

For a 10-spot game, the probability of matching exactly 5 numbers is calculated as: C(10,5) × C(70,15) / C(80,20) where C(n,k) represents "n choose k" combinations.

Why Keno Has the Worst Odds in the Casino

Keno's appeal is easy to understand: pick some numbers, wait for the draw, and potentially win big. The game has been around for centuries, with origins tracing back to ancient China where it was reportedly used to fund the construction of the Great Wall. But behind the simple gameplay lies mathematics that heavily favor the house.

Did You Know? According to the American Gaming Association, keno typically returns only 70-75 cents for every dollar wagered—far worse than slot machines (90-95¢) or table games (97-99¢). This makes keno one of the most profitable games for casinos relative to the wager amount.

The Mathematics Behind Keno

In standard keno, you pick between 1 and 20 numbers from a pool of 80. The casino then randomly draws 20 numbers. Your payout depends on how many of your picks match the drawn numbers.

The probability calculations involve combinations—specifically, the hypergeometric distribution. This is the same mathematics used in genetics research and quality control sampling, as documented by the University of California, Berkeley Department of Statistics.

What makes keno particularly unfavorable is the paytable structure. While the raw probabilities are fixed by mathematics, casinos design paytables that return far less than the true odds would suggest. A fair game would pay based on the inverse of probability; keno paytables pay significantly less.

Keno vs. Other Casino Games

To understand just how bad keno odds are, consider this comparison:

Keno

25-30% House Edge

Returns 70-75¢ per $1 wagered

Slot Machines

5-12% House Edge

Returns 88-95¢ per $1 wagered

American Roulette

5.26% House Edge

Returns 94.74¢ per $1 wagered

Blackjack (Basic Strategy)

0.5% House Edge

Returns 99.5¢ per $1 wagered

For every $100 wagered on keno, you can mathematically expect to lose $25-30. The same $100 wagered on blackjack with basic strategy would have an expected loss of only 50 cents.

Why Matching All Your Numbers Is Nearly Impossible

The dream of hitting all your numbers in a 10-spot keno game has astronomical odds. The probability is approximately 1 in 8.9 million—roughly the same as being dealt a royal flush twice in a row in video poker.

Even matching 7 out of 10 picks (which often triggers a significant payout) has odds of about 1 in 621. Most sessions will result in matching 0-3 numbers, which typically returns nothing or just your original bet.

The Reality: In a typical 10-spot keno game, you'll match 0, 1, or 2 numbers about 69% of the time—and most paytables pay nothing for these outcomes. This means you'll lose your entire wager in roughly 7 out of every 10 games.

Video Keno vs. Live Keno

Casinos offer keno in two main formats, each with different characteristics:

Live Keno

Traditional keno with ball drawings or electronic displays in a dedicated keno lounge. Games typically run every 5-15 minutes. The pace is slow, but so is your expected loss per hour. Live keno lounges were once common in Las Vegas casinos but have declined as players shifted to faster-paced games.

Video Keno

Electronic keno machines that function like slot machines, allowing rapid-fire games. While the house edge might be similar (or sometimes slightly better), the speed of play dramatically increases your expected loss per hour. A video keno player might complete 200-400 games per hour versus 4-12 games in a live setting.

As the Nevada Gaming Control Board requires, all regulated keno games must operate within approved parameters, but the combination of high house edge and fast play makes video keno one of the more expensive forms of casino entertainment.

The Keno Paytable Problem

Understanding keno requires recognizing that two keno games with identical rules can have vastly different house edges depending on the paytable. Unlike roulette where payouts are fixed, keno payouts vary by casino and even by machine.

Example: 4-Spot Keno Paytable Comparison

Matches	Probability	Good Paytable	Bad Paytable
4 of 4	1 in 326	120 for 1	75 for 1
3 of 4	1 in 23	4 for 1	2 for 1
2 of 4	1 in 5	1 for 1	1 for 1
House Edge		20%	35%

The difference between these paytables represents an additional $15 lost per $100 wagered. Always check the paytable before playing—though even "good" keno paytables represent poor value compared to other casino games.

Keno Strategy: Does It Exist?

Unlike blackjack where decisions affect outcomes, keno offers no meaningful strategic choices. The numbers you pick, patterns you choose, and "lucky numbers" you favor have absolutely no effect on your probability of winning. Every number from 1-80 has an equal 25% chance of being drawn (20/80).

Common keno "strategies" that don't work:

Hot/Cold numbers: Past draws don't influence future draws—each game is independent
Pattern selection: Diagonal lines, birthdays, or "lucky" patterns have no mathematical advantage
Betting systems: Martingale and other systems don't overcome the house edge
Playing more spots: More picks doesn't improve expected return, just changes volatility

The only legitimate keno "strategy" is choosing paytables with lower house edges—which still leaves you with one of the worst bets in the casino.

Did You Know? The National Council on Problem Gambling notes that games with slower pace and lower volatility like live keno may pose lower problem gambling risk than fast-paced games, despite the higher house edge. However, video keno combines the worst of both worlds: high house edge plus fast play.

The Keno-Lottery Connection

Keno is essentially a casino lottery. The mathematics are similar to state lotteries, which typically have even worse odds (50%+ house edge). Our Lottery Odds Calculator shows how these games compare.

Many state lotteries now offer keno as a standalone game played at bars and convenience stores, with drawings every few minutes. These games often have house edges in the 30-40% range—even worse than casino keno.

Related Tools

Explore more educational calculators to understand casino mathematics:

Casino Odds Calculator: Compare house edges across all major casino games
Lottery Odds Calculator: Similar probability mathematics applied to Powerball and other lotteries
Expected Value Calculator: Understand the fundamental math of gambling outcomes
Gambling Cost Calculator: Calculate the true cost of keno and other games over time