Poker Outs & Pot Odds Calculator
Understanding "outs" and pot odds is fundamental to profitable poker. An "out" is any card that will improve your hand to a likely winner. This calculator helps you count your outs, calculate your drawing odds, and determine whether calling a bet is mathematically correct—the same calculations professional poker players perform at the table.
The Rule of 2 and 4
Turn to River: Outs × 2 ≈ % to hit
Calculate Your Drawing Odds
Select a common draw or enter custom outs to see your odds and pot odds requirements
Select Your Draw Type
Click a common draw or use custom outs below:
Custom Outs Calculator
Check the outs that apply to your situation, or enter a custom number:
Pot Odds Situation
Understanding Poker Outs
An "out" is any unseen card that will improve your hand to what you believe will be the winner. Counting outs accurately is one of the most important skills in poker, and it's what separates recreational players from professionals.
According to PokerNews, one of the most respected poker strategy resources, understanding pot odds is "essential for anyone wanting to be a winning poker player." The math is straightforward once you understand the concept.
Common Draw Situations and Their Outs
Here's a comprehensive reference for the most common drawing situations in Texas Hold'em:
| Draw Type | Outs | Turn % | River % | Turn+River % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gutshot straight draw (inside straight) | 4 | 8.5% | 8.7% | 16.5% |
| Two overcards (pair draw) | 6 | 12.8% | 13.0% | 24.1% |
| Open-ended straight draw | 8 | 17.0% | 17.4% | 31.5% |
| Flush draw | 9 | 19.1% | 19.6% | 35.0% |
| Flush draw + gutshot | 12 | 25.5% | 26.1% | 45.0% |
| Flush draw + open-ended straight | 15 | 31.9% | 32.6% | 54.1% |
How Pot Odds Work
Pot odds represent the ratio between the current pot size and the cost of calling a bet. They tell you the minimum equity (winning percentage) you need to justify a call.
Pot Odds Formula
The fundamental rule is simple: if your equity exceeds your pot odds, calling is mathematically profitable. Over thousands of hands, this mathematical edge compounds into significant profit.
As explained by Britannica's coverage of probability theory, the law of large numbers ensures that actual results converge toward expected value over time. In poker, this means consistently making +EV decisions leads to winning.
The Mathematics Behind the Calculator
Exact Probability Calculations
The calculator uses exact probability formulas, not just the Rule of 2 and 4 approximation:
- Turn probability: Outs ÷ Remaining cards (typically 47 on flop, 46 on turn)
- River probability: Outs ÷ 46 (after turn is dealt)
- Flop to river: 1 - [(47-outs)/47 × (46-outs)/46] = probability of hitting at least once
For example, with a 9-out flush draw on the flop:
- Turn: 9/47 = 19.15%
- River: 9/46 = 19.57%
- Either card: 1 - (38/47 × 37/46) = 1 - 0.6499 = 35.01%
Implied Odds: Beyond Basic Pot Odds
Pure pot odds don't tell the whole story. "Implied odds" account for the additional money you might win on later streets when you hit your hand.
According to the Card Player odds resources, understanding implied odds separates good players from great ones. Here's when implied odds matter:
- Deep stacks: More money behind means more potential profit when you hit
- Disguised hands: When your draw isn't obvious (like a gutshot vs. a flush draw on a three-suited board)
- Aggressive opponents: Players who will pay off your made hands increase your implied odds
- Weak opponents: Players who can't fold strong hands give you excellent implied odds
Conversely, "reverse implied odds" apply when hitting your draw might cost you more money—like making a flush when your opponent might have a full house.
Why Understanding Outs Matters
The math of poker outs connects directly to the stories we cover on this site. When we write about the MIT Blackjack Team, their success was built on exactly this type of mathematical edge—knowing when the odds were in their favor and betting accordingly.
The difference between recreational and professional poker players often comes down to consistently applying pot odds correctly. As documented by the World Series of Poker, understanding pot odds is considered foundational knowledge for serious players.
Common Mistakes to Avoid
Counting Outs That Aren't Real
One of the biggest mistakes is counting "tainted outs"—cards that improve your hand but also improve your opponent's hand to something better. For example:
- If you have a flush draw but the board has a pair, some of your flush cards might give your opponent a full house
- If you're drawing to a straight with cards like 7-8 on a 9-T-K board, an 8 might give someone J-Q a straight
- Overcards might be counterfeited if your opponent already has a higher pair
This connects to what we explored in our article on gambling superstitions—the psychological tendency to see patterns and hope that can override mathematical reality.
Ignoring Position and Future Betting
Pot odds calculations assume the current bet is the last action. But in reality:
- On the flop, you might face additional bets on turn and river
- Out of position, you'll act first and may face pressure you can't handle
- Multi-way pots can reduce your effective odds even when pot odds look good
Practical Application
Here's how to use this calculator's concepts at the table:
- Count your outs: What cards will give you the likely best hand?
- Use the Rule of 2 and 4: Multiply outs by 2 (one card) or 4 (two cards)
- Calculate pot odds: Bet ÷ (Pot + Bet) = equity needed
- Compare: If your equity > pot odds needed, calling is +EV
- Adjust for implied/reverse implied odds: Is there more money to win or lose?
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